It is always a pleasure to have an on-air chat with WION, the premier English-language global broadcaster of India. Yesterday was especially so when their program host posed a series of very relevant questions about the just announced Russian military budget for 2024 showing a 70% increase in spending over the current year. Naturally, one wonders about Russia’s intentions: how will these new funds be spent? On which weapons systems? What kind of message is Russia sending to the West by this increase? How will the increased military spending impact on social spending within Russia or, put another way, are guns and butter a sustainable political course?
In this introduction, I will not telescope my answers. I am hopeful that readers will open the link below and follow the logic set out therein.
However, I can say here that I set out the key drivers for the increased spending. One is the latest Russian assumptions on when the war in Ukraine will end, on how it may escalate into a general Russia-NATO war as the Biden administration resists admitting defeat in Ukraine, which is possibly imminent, by expanding the conflict and introducing NATO forces on the ground. The second is the expenses related to the near doubling of the size of the Russian army now underway following the induction of 300,000 men one year ago by mobilization of reserves and the sign-up of more than 400,000 volunteers that we have seen since the start of this year.
As regards the other issues, such as the 6% of GDP that the new military budget represents, or the 2% overall budget deficit that Russia is now incurring, I explain in this interview why such figures cannot be commented upon as if in a vacuum but must be compared to what countries in the West are now experiencing, as well as to Russia’s own Soviet past.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023
Yes, yes...clarity of thought, hitting it on the dot every time - it must be nice to be perfect, I'm not quite there yet myself, but what I most admire about Gilbert Doctorow, Larry Johnson and moi is that we don't smile. I mean, so Mearsheimer is "Head of The Realist School" then why the heck does he always wear a big politician's smile - and Ray McGovern too. How about a sense of gravitas, fellas? It even makes 'em seem a bit stupid. And shout out to Ray, hey bro don't you think you should consider maybe goin' to speech school. Do you have a speech impediment or is it an affectation? Distracts from message...and wipe that damb grin pasted on your face. Annoying. AND...Please! Stick with the standard pronunciation of Putin. It's PYOO-tin or POO-tin...NOT pyoo-teeeeeeng. Again, it's the annoying distraction thing
Your interviewer’s closing comments were both complimentary and correct. Incisive, thoughtful, and hit the dot.