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WION: 0:00
According to reports, the US has proposed a UN resolution on the Ukraine war that omits any mention of Kiev's territory occupied by Russia. Washington's proposal comes amid an intensifying feud between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Now this proposed resolution appears to rival a separate draft resolution produced by Kiev and its European allies. The Ukrainian-European text blames Russia for the invasion and commits to Kiev's territorial integrity. It demands an immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

0:43
On the other hand, US-backed proposal's text reportedly calls for a swift end to the conflict without mentioning Kiev's territorial integrity and it was welcomed by Moscow's ambassador as a good move.

Now Ukraine and European allies say that they have been sidelined out of talks between the United States and Russian officials. But Trump has now said that both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin will have to get together to end the war.

Trump:
I think that President Putin and President Zelensky are going to have to get together because you know what? We want to stop killing millions of people. You have young soldiers being killed. If you saw the pictures that I saw of the battlefield from satellite, you've never seen any pictures like that. Soldiers are being killed by the thousands a week, thousands of soldiers a week. As we speak, they're being killed. That's why I want to see a ceasefire and I want to get the deal done. I think we have a chance to get the deal done. I had to make sure that Russia wanted to do it.

WION: 1:50
Trump has also said that they are pretty close to reaching a deal with Ukraine, which will allow the US access to the country's rare earth minerals in exchange for continued military aid.

Reporter:
How close are you to striking a minerals deal--

Trump:
I think we're pretty close. Yeah, I think they want it, and they feel good about it, and it's a significant, it's a big deal, But they want it and it keeps us in that country and they're very happy about it. But it's-- we get our money back. This should have been signed long before we went in. This should have been signed by Biden. But Biden didn't know too much about what he was doing. The war should have never happened.

WION: 2:35
Now, Zelensky said during his nightly address that his government is working with the United States on a draft agreement aiming to strengthen weakening relations between the two countries. As Washington presses Kiev to sign the minerals deal, Zelensky has said that he hopes for a fair result. But Donald Trump says Ukraine has no cards to play with.

These developments point to a possibility that Trump and Putin are likely to attempt to reach a ceasefire agreement soon. A probable date is May 9th, when Russia commemorates Victory Day, marking the USSR victories over Nazi Germany in World War II. For more details, we are now being joined by Dr. Gilbert Doctorow from [Brussels]. He is an international affairs analyst; he is an author and also an historian.

3:34
Dr. Doctorow, let me first ask you this. US President Donald Trump has said that the presence of President Zelensky was not needed at the US-Russia talks. Now does this show that Moscow and Washington are heading towards an agreement without Ukraine and Europe?

4:07
I'm not really sure if you heard that, Doctor, but--

Gilbert Doctorow, PhD:
No, I didn't hear you.

WION:
Can you hear me now, though?

Doctorow: 4:15
Yes, I do.

WION:
Okay. So, US President Donald Trump has said that the presence of President Zelensky was not needed at the US-Russia talks. I want to ask you, does this show that Moscow and Washington are heading towards an agreement without Ukraine and Europe?

Doctorow:
I think we have to look at what took place in Riyadh to understand, to have an answer to your question. The world at large is looking at the Trump points as being a settlement of the Ukraine crisis in one blow, in one strike. That is absolutely wrong. The concept that
we saw rolled out in Riyadh by the American delegation was very different and was far more realistic. It understands that you cannot have the resolution of a problem as complex, as difficult, as sensational as the one we're talking about, the end to the war in Ukraine, without having a measure of trust and a level of diplomatic interchange that do not exist today.

In fact, the American negotiating position was to divide the topics for discussion into three baskets, the first one being to restore diplomatic relations to a level where there are functioning officials in the embassies in the respective countries who can help see through to the end the complex talks that are involved in solving Ukraine and other very topical issues between the two superpowers.

5:50
The second basket, which would come only after the first basket, is to address specific areas of common interest, including resolution of the Ukraine war, but not exclusively that. It is that why these different measures, again, confidence-building, you cannot have a settlement of long duration by parties that have no trust in one another and by extending the talks to include areas like cooperation in the northern sea route, in the Arctic, in hydrocarbons, in space cooperation, all of these-- And of course we must hope for cooperation and restoration of arms limitation talks. All of these various topics entail the constant flow of people back and forth, of experts back and forth between the two countries, the United States and Russia, which are procedurally important because they established trust. And only then in the third phase there would be discussion of big geopolitics, how the new world order would look.

6:58
So there's no reason whatsoever for any other parties than the United States and Russia to have been present at these initial talks. They were not about how the war ends.

WION:
While you say they are not about how the war ends, but the ending of the war and the Ukraine deal is what the world eagerly awaits. So what is the most likely timeline for a Ukraine deal? Is it Easter or is it the Victory Day in May 9th?

Doctorow:
I'd say it's any time within the coming six months. There are a lot of difficulties to overcome. It is, I think, doubtful that Mr. Zelensky will be present at the table representing Ukraine. So the resolution of who exactly represents Ukraine at these negotiations is one of the first tasks.

And the notion that Zelensky would sign a peace agreement was rejected categorically by the Russians, because he has no legitimate authority. So that is the first thing that has to be resolved when we set a timeline. As regards the conduct of the war itself, it is likely that it can go on as long as six months, though many military experts, particularly outside mainstream, speak of a destruction of the Ukrainian forces, the crumbling of the front. Frankly speaking that is not happening, for a number of reasons that we don't have time on this show to go into. But it's not happening. The Ukrainians have sufficient weapons delivered to them by Biden before he departed office to keep on going for a while.

8:42
They have sufficient reserves, particularly of young, untapped resources, 18 to 25, to keep on going for a while. So within this coming six months, there will be a settlement of the war, but exactly when, it would be irresponsible to give a date.

WION:
Okay, Dr. Gilbert, thank you so much for joining us on the show today with your analysis.

Doctorow:
Well thank you.

WION: 9:07
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