WION, Indian English language global broadcaster: latest news on a Ukraine peace settlement
I am pleased to present a 9-minute video on the prospects for ending the Ukraine war that was posted yesterday on the WION youtube channel. My interview starts from minute 3.
A somewhat shorter version of the interview was incorporated by WION in another similar length news program devoted to the Russia-Ukraine war. That link is here:
I point to two interesting observations by the presenter in the second link with reference to Reuters reports.
The first is that within the scope of a peace agreement Russia agrees that its 350 billion dollars in frozen state assets may be made available for rebuilding Ukraine and that 20% of this sum will be reserved to be spent in the 20% of Ukrainian territory which Russia now has in its possession.
I do not exclude that such a possibility is being discussed between Team Trump and the Kremlin. I see the logic of such a concession in the context of Ukraine and the world community recognizing Russian ownership of that 20% it controls, so that the territorial issue of restoring Ukraine to its pre-war borders is resolved once and for all in Russia’s favor. In a sense, you could view such a solution as Russia’s buying the land in the tradition of the U.S. Louisiana Purchase with France or the Russian sale of Alaska to the USA in the 19th century. In that sense is would not be ‘war reparations’ as the pro-Kiev lobby long demanded as part of the travesty that went under the name ‘Zelensky’s peace plan.’
The second interesting point in the WION presentation is tentative dates for the conclusion of the cease-fire and/or definitive peace. These are 20 April, which happens this year to be Easter under both Western and Eastern Christian rites, or 9 May, the traditional Victory in Europe day as celebrated in Russia.
As you will see, I believe it is premature to speak of any given date because the sides appear to be far apart and the would-be meddling for the war’s continuation by the EU, Britain and the Kiev regime has not yet been quashed entirely by Team Trump. That may come this week when British PM Starmer and French President Macron call on the White House.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, I also have been listening to rumors being promoted by Trump sources in Washington indicating that the war may end in the coming week. For all the reasons I give in this interview, an end to the war in the sense of full peace treaty cannot be done at once. However, a cease-fire is a different matter, and can be concluded at any time if the conditions are properly agreed.
Why now? Because the 24th of February marks the third anniversary of its inception and Vladimir Putin might use the date to claim victory in the war, thereby opening the door to an immediate end of hostilities.
I use this opportunity to take another look at the question of mineral rights in Ukraine being demanded by Team Trump. I had initially viewed this as a stratagem to elicit a Nyet from Kiev that would justify a full U.S. withdrawal of further aid to Ukraine. However, I presently see by the very insistence of Trump on signing such an agreement that it may have a life of its own. This could be an off-ramp for the U.S. side to leave Ukraine with its prestige seemingly intact. In this regard, I note that Trump now is speaking of not just rare earth deposits, which may in fact be uncommercial, and he has broadened his demands to include any tangible natural wealth that Ukraine still has, including even its gas and oil reserves, which have been only slightly tapped till now.
Would such an agreement with Kiev mean continued supply of arms from the United States and a long- term U.S. military presence as many nay-sayers suggest. I doubt there is any such plan in Washington. Trump & Co. understand that this would be totally unacceptable to Moscow.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025