What the Russians are saying about the Iran war: Iran is being destroyed, Trump is winning!

The mood yesterday on two of the most authoritative news and commentary programs on Russian state television, Sixty Minutes and Evening with Vladimir Solovyov, was very gloomy largely because of the sober and depressing readings of the present state of the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and its likely outcome. The plain language explanations were set out by some of the best-informed military and regional authorities in the country who were given the microphone to deliver substantial analysis not just sound bites.

The retired colonel featured on Sixty Minutes is a regular panelist who also appears on the Solovyov program every few days. His usual reporting deals with the progress on the Ukraine war, and it has always been very circumspect, considering possibilities for setbacks where many journalists are talking only about the latest small town taken by Russian troops. This time he held back nothing, telling the audience that the overwhelming U.S.-Israeli forces are succeeding in their mission: they have taken full control of the skies over Iran and are destroying military and other targets at will, degrading Iran’s air defenses and missile stocks, as well as command and control centers. Meanwhile, he judges the Iranian counter attacks to be ineffectual. From a purely military standpoint, Iran is losing this war which, he judges, may have a duration of 4 weeks in keeping with Trump’s initial prognostication.

The principal Middle East/Iran specialist who is a regular contributor to Solovyov’s program also had very discouraging news: Israel is proceeding with its plan to dismember Iran, starting first with making common cause with the region predominantly populated by Kurds. Israel may already have sent its troops to that region to further the cause. Other religious, ethnic divisions in the vast multicultural Iranian political landscape will also be exploited.

These reports were all the more depressing for the Solovyov regular panelists because they see in what Trump is doing in Iran the scenario for his likely future attack on Russia: decapitation followed by massive waves of air strikes that overwhelm the air defenses and degrade the ability to fight back. This comes against the background of deep disappointment these panelists have over President Putin’s behaving like a weakling. Moreover, there is silent shock that the great friends and almost allies in the East, China, appear to be useless and worthless in defending Iran. It is all too clear what value the Chinese will have for coming to Russia’s aid if it is struck by the Americans.

Having watched all of this hand-wringing on the part of very professional analysts featured on Russian television, I took a step back and considered what may be wrong with their approach to the Iranians and with their assessment of how the war will end.

They have not considered the Iranian approach to the war, which may be as different from their own Russian approach as the Russian approach has been from the U.S. war fighting strategy. I believe that the Iranians have placed their bets not in terms of military counter attack but in political and economic warfare. There are several very good reasons for this.

You will note that the biggest effort of Tehran has not been to destroy Israel but to set the Gulf States afire, to attack the fragile business and tourism and airline logistics of the region, putting Dubai, Abu Dhabi at risk and shutting down Qatar gas production, Saudi refining. Their attacks may not be devastating but they are intended to push the sheikhs to appeal to Washington to end the hostilities before the region is ruined economically and the expatriates, who constitute the bulk of the population sustaining the economic boom locally, all flee for their lives.

The closure of the Straits of Hormuz, which is relatively easy for Iran to implement even without having its central command and control centers and most experienced military and political leaders whom Israel has murdered, that closure has vast economic knock-on effects that we are already beginning to feel in rapidly risking petroleum prices and skyrocketing natural gas prices in Europe and further afield. Trump speaks about U.S. naval escorts to ensure continuing traffic through the Straits but that is irresponsible talk. Even guerilla warriors on the banks of the Straits can shut it all down. No big Iranian army is needed and Trump’s ships also can be sunk by drones and missiles fired from afar, as from Yemen.

Why has Iran gone easy on Israel and instead put pressure on all the U.S. military bases in the region? This strategy is all about avoiding giving the Israelis any pretext for declaring a national emergency and attacking Iran with its nuclear bombs.

In short, the calculus of the Iranians is to inflict a political, not a purely military defeat on Washington, knowing that Trump is very sensitive to the rising cost of fuel at the gas stations across the country whereas he may still be indifferent to the loss of lives of U.S. servicemen, which scarcely ranked in importance yesterday when he met with reporters and talked instead about his great big new White House ballroom.

Whether the Iranian strategy will succeed, whether they can inflict overwhelming political damage on Trump in this sensitive period before the midterm elections that forces him to back down while there is still something left of the Iranian military force and political leadership remains to be seen.

As for the Russian chatting classes who are the basic audience for the aforementioned news and commentary programs, they are spooked. And they are deeply disappointed in their own and in Chinese leadership. This sets the base line for future political developments in Moscow.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2026