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Anthony E Wicher's avatar

Gilbert Doctorow gives a very strong analysis of the Biden administration decision to allow ATACMS missiles to hit targets inside Russia. According to the Russian MOD, the attack this morning was by six such missiles against an ammunition dump. They say five of the six were shot down and the sixth was damaged and caused a small fire. There were no casualties and very little damage to the facility. What Doctorow emphasizes is that these missiles can only be used with an American targeting system, so an attack with these missiles by Ukraine is really an attack by the United States. Everybody on both sides knows this. This attack was on a military target and will not provoke a strong military response. It has provoked loud warnings from Putin's spokesman Dmitri Peskov and UN ambassador Vasily Nebenzya, which is to be expected, but Doctorow thinks this is as far as Russia will go at this time. What surely would evoke a nuclear response would be a successful attack on the Kursk nuclear facility, creating a Chernobyl type situation. If such an attack did occur, the United States would correctly be held completely responsible. Doctorow thinks that even the US neocons are not crazy enough to try this. I hope he's right. He thinks this is just a gesture, the last hurrah of the Biden administration, and the Russians will see it that way.

As for Europe, Doctorow thinks that beneath their façade of complete stupidity, some are realizing the reality that they can't possibly take on Russia without the US, and that Trump is going to be the US president in two months, and his policies are going to be radically different from those of the Biden administration. We then hear a remarkably powerful antiwar statement by Donald Trump himself about the need to end the war in Ukraine before it leads to nuclear war. Doctorow fully agrees with the substance of the speech, but does demur about one point which is Trump's call for an immediate ceasefire. The Russians will not agree to this under current conditions, and the conditions under which they would agree would probably involve a new security arrangement for all of Europe, which would require extensive negotiation. Meanwhile, Russia will continue the military campaign in Ukraine. They are advancing rapidly now against weak resistance, and many in the corridors of power in Russia are saying that Russia should march on Kiev and finish the Kiev regime. I think so myself, and even would like to see this done before Jan 20, so Trump cannot be blamed by the stupid neocons for "losing Ukraine". Instead, he could start by sending an envoy to Kiev to talk to whomever Russia installs there. To normalize relations with Russia, he could also take off all the stupid sanctions against Russia, which never worked anyway and hurt everybody but Russia, especially Europe. He could even admit that the US blew up Nordstream 2, and volunteer to repair it. That would help Europe a lot and go a long way to restore friendship between the US and Russia. He could even apply for membership in the BRICS. I suppose all this is too much to hope for, but I can dream, can't I?

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Boris Petrov's avatar

IMPORTANT !!

ATACMS - 100% it cannot be operated by anybody but the United States.

- Scott Ritter

https://x.com/BPetrovchich/status/1858916940217286711

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