Vladimir Putin's state visit to China as reported by WION Indian global television
It was a pleasure earlier today to discuss with WION moderator Shivan Chanana what results we may expect from the ongoing visit to China of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As you will see from this exchange and from the messages presented on the running band of text at the bottom of the screen, India’s global English-language broadcaster has a well-informed and sophisticated understanding of the issues at play.
Transcript below by a reader
WION, Shivan Chanana: 0:00
Russian president Vladimir Putin is in China on his first foreign visit after being re-elected and sworn in as Russia's president for the fifth time. Now the Russian president has brought a large delegation consisting of five deputy prime ministers, heads of economic, diplomatic and security agencies, along with a number of top CEOs from Russia. What's on the cards here? What should one expect from China and Russia as they come closer together in their no-limits partnership? For more on this, we're joined by Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, author, historian, and also political commentator, joining us from Brussels,
Dr. Doctorow, always a pleasure speaking with you; welcome to WION. Why did Putin choose China for his first state visit after re-election?
Doctorow: 0:43
It's completely reciprocal. It underlines the very close relationship that both countries have, where each is the closest partner of the other in the whole world. And since President Xi visited Russia as the first country of a foreign trip following his election, re-election, as the president, Mr. Putin is doing precisely the same thing.
Chanana:
Doctor Doctorow, there's also a closed-door meeting which is scheduled to take place with Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin. And this is going to be in the 1-plus-4 format. There isn't going to be anyone other than the 10 diplomats there and of course, heads of state, inside that closed room. What do you expect in those talks? Because it is being said that they are going to be discussing Ukraine there.
Doctorow: 1:33
I think the top of the agenda will be the Russians' intentions for using tactical nuclear weapons in the battlefield. This is a new development, unprecedented development, and Mr Putin announced Russia's readiness to do that and ordered that there be exercises, military exercises, with the units from the Central Military District operating near Ukraine to practice all kinds of delivery systems for these nuclear weapons. The Chinese have been very cautious, very wary about opening the Pandora's box of nuclear weapons, and I think this will be a top issue for discussion between leaders.
Chanana: 2:18
It's interesting that you mentioned tactical nuclear weapons. Of course, Russia has been, you know, saber-rattling a lot of the nuclear talk in the recent times. They have been carrying out nuclear drills right in front of Ukraine in the Southern Military District and also in Belarus. But when it comes to China, they made it clear that they do not want to get involved in any kind of military tie-up, and they want to work, they do want to work towards peace. So that the fact that you feel that the tactical nuclear weapons will be discussed in those closed doors, how far do you feel China would be involved in that, going further in the battlefield?
Doctorow: 2:56
I think China will give Mr Putin their approval of his latest statements on the use of tactical nuclear weapons. This will be a big change in the position of China, but then other, in principle, elements of their nuclear policy in China are also under review in Chengjing. It is likely that if Russia and China pursue their intended talks about the assistance that Russia can provide to China with its early warning system of incoming missiles, that would change China's policy with respect to launch. China has had a policy until now of launching a nuclear counterattack only in case it has been physically attacked by another country. It is about to change, depending on the results of talks with Russia, to integrate the two into a single air defence zone. If that proceeds successfully, then China will change its own policy on nuclear launch, to launch-on-warning, which is a very big change for global politics.
Chanana: 4:11
Definitely. If-- I mean, these are very interesting comments that you've made, and of course we will be tracking that closely to see how it goes from here, because this visit of Mr Putin toward, into China is coming just days after a government shakeup, days after a cabinet shakeup, and Mr Jinping has just returned from Europe after his successful Europe tour. Do you feel this would impact the Russia-China relations, the fact that Xi Jinping had a successful tour in Europe, do you feel that would impact Russia-China relations? Or will this open routes for Putin into Europe?
Doctorow: 4:47
I think we want to consider how and why this visit by Xi was successful. If you read the Financial Times, you would say it was a failure; he didn't achieve anything. But I understand from your statement that WION has a different view, and I agree with your view, I think it was a remarkably successful trip, in precisely doing what mainstream media in the West are warning about, that is driving a cleavage that already existed, widening it between several of the EU member states and the vast majority of those states, which are all working on the Washington-dictated policies. Those states are Serbia, Hungary in particular and even France. It was quite astonishing that Mr Xi managed to keep the friends, the French in line as talking partners by extending to them the promise of industrial investments, particularly in the area of electrical vehicles, which have a great future in Europe and the world.
Chanana: 5:54
Dr Doctorow, diplomats are focusing on the preparation for a summit on Ukraine's peace plan in Switzerland next month. Do you think China will attend?
Doctorow:
It's questionable. The fact that Russia will not be there is a major influence on China's thinking. They have not rushed to declare their intentions, but I think close to the actual opening of that meeting, they will issue a statement that they're not attending, because it has no possibility of being productive, but we'll see.
Chanana:
Always a pleasure speaking with you, Doctor. Your in-depth understanding of global politics, it always brings out some very interesting insights, and your comments are definitely ones that are insightful for all our viewers as well. We are going to be tracking this to see how far these developments are true to what we've discussed today. Thank you so much.
That was Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, joining us from Brussels. He's an author, historian and a political commentator.
Doctorow: 6:54
Thanks for invitation and for your kind words.
Chanana:
Thank you, sir.