Transcript of Press TV "Spotlight"

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PressTV: 0:00
Well, I'd like to welcome my guests to the program. Gilbert Doctorow, Independent International Affairs Analyst out of Brussels. And Christopher Hilali, researcher and political analyst out of Vershire in the US. Well, thank you both for being with me. Great to see both of you.

Starting it off in Brussels and Gilbert. I mean, It was quite a show. What are your thoughts about these tumultuous talks that took place at the White House between Zelensky, Trump, and US Vice President, JD Vance?

Doctorow:
This was very carefully stage-managed. I think it's a mistake to look at Trump as a superficial, lightweight person who might be amusing and who is known for his reality shows. This man is a showman in the most profound sense. In the last two weeks, we have seen a succession of historic events that have confused world leaders, but have not confused those of us among the observer groups who understand or try to understand what his objectives are. And there are clear objectives, and they're extremely well served by these successive acts that he's coordinated, choreographed with his very capable team.

1:31
Going back to the talk, the telephone conversation that he had with Vladimir Putin, followed the next day by a speech here in Brussels by Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, in which he told the support group for Ukraine that Ukraine had no future in NATO and could not, would not go back to its pre-war boundaries, followed by the Munich Security Conference appearance of JD Vance, in which he drove a stake between the United States and its European allies, saying the United States could not and would not support them if they themselves are betraying democracy, which he demonstrated at length. And now we have this event in the White House, in the Oval Office.

2:17
It was very well choreographed. He let Zelensky hang himself. He let him show his ugly nature, his pure hatred for Russia and for Mr. Putin, which make it impossible to conclude a peace. And then he brought the hammer down on Zelensky and made it very clear that there will be no further US aid to Ukraine and that the war will end. And not by a peace, but by a capitulation as the Russians maul his country and his country has no self defense.

PressTV: 2:49
Yeah, definitely very interesting. Well, Christopher, your thoughts, I mean, because we have definitely seen a 180 degree turnaround coming out of the White House, your perspective of why is Trump supporting Russia in the way he did? And we compare it to the Biden, not only the Biden White House, but the European allies who supported Kiev and continue to support Kiev. I mean, is it that Donald Trump, it really is because he wants peace, because he says this was ridiculous to begin with? Is it to get back at Biden that he thinks very much he's involved in major kickbacks out of the Ukraine deal. I mean, your overall assessment of what's happening.

Hilali: 3:39
Listen, I mean, this is a this is a transformational moment for US foreign policy and for the US's standing in the world. Prior to this, we were talking often about BRICS, the development of the multipolar world, the end of US hegemony and US unipolarity. And I think that a part of the equation is that in order for the United States to stay relevant, in order for the United States to play the great game on a global scale, there have to be some concessions made to some other powerful nations. And, of course, in this case, the Russian Federation.

4:12
So the idea that Trump now is open for business with Russia and is seeking a quick end to this war is, I think, part of a larger strategy that might be to pull Russia away from China and away from that global South alliance system that has been created. And, of course, we've seen already articles coming out of some very famous theorists and international relations experts in Russia at prominent universities basically saying to Putin and to the Russian government, don't fall for the trap, because they, of course, said that the West can never be trusted. Of course, what we saw with Zelensky was something that we've always known to exist because we've seen the US turn against its longtime allies, whether it was in South Vietnam, in Panama, in Iran, in Iraq, in Libya, and so many other places around the world throughout, of course, especially the last century.

5:01
What we haven't seen is we haven't seen it in front of the cameras. Now everybody was able to watch in real time what the US government does to its vassals once they kind of go outside of their bounds. And so I think that this is going to definitely reshape the relationship, not only between the US and Ukraine, but between the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, and by extension, of course, with the Russian Federation.

PressTV: 5:27
Yeah, well, let's talk about that, Gilbert. How significant is the difference between Washington and Brussels and London, and where do you see this particular schism going?

Doctorow:
Well, I'd like to take a step back and comment on what my fellow panelist has said. I agree entirely that what we are seeing is far bigger than the Ukraine war. It is a reordering of the global power structure. And what I see coming is not US efforts to separate Russia from China, which is impossible, and I think people around Trump understand that perfectly well. But to have a new Yalta, A new realpolitik, realism, division of spheres of influence among major powers.

6:22
And I think it's quite possible we will see that new Yalta taking place in Moscow on May 9th. On May 9th, President Xi from China will be in Moscow. We now know that President Modi from India will be there. And the only thing missing is Donald Trump. It would be logical to expect to see him there and for them to perform this big global division of spheres of influence that can bring peace for the coming 50 years, if it is properly implemented. And in this big picture, Ukraine is a very small question.

PressTV: 7:04
Right. Well, Christopher, I mean, Trump has openly said that the US wants a percentage of Ukraine's rare earth minerals and signing that agreement would lead to the end of the war. Your thoughts on that side of things. I mean, was a big part of this war to begin with about controlling Ukraine and its natural resources or how do you see it? And did this have anything to do with the reason that the US carried out the 2014 coup in Ukraine to begin with when they had a pro-Russian president? I mean, your assessment.

Hilali: 7:42
Certainly, the economic factors have been behind the 2014 fascist junta that the United States and other Western countries supported. And of course we know that it's not only rare earth minerals, but also, for example, agricultural goods like wheat, also, for example, various other commodities that Ukraine has in large quantities, given its land size, that the West was interested [in]. The West was interested also in the deindustrialization of Ukraine, in tearing apart a lot of its major industries, which the Russians, in territories that have been liberated and have become part of the Russian Federation have been put back on line. I visited one of these industries in Lugansk, which was a major steel factory, which had gone down to four or five thousand workers and is back up now to 30,000 because of the investment by the Russian Federation.

8:34
So what you saw was something akin to the 90s, katastroika, what they called [it] in the Russian sphere, basically a complete liquidation of the Ukrainian economy and the ability for major companies and corporations to take what they could from Ukraine to the West. Given the fact now that the situation has changed, of course, Russia has pursued some sort of opening to Trump to also have a deal in terms of rare earth minerals. So who knows what ends up happening, but I can say that if Kiev doesn't agree, if Zelensky doesn't agree to this minerals deal, and if Ukraine is not able to stabilize its situation, I think Zelensky's going to go either by force or be removed altogether in a new election, and there's going to have to be some final settlement on the situation there.

9:22
But of course, as I agree with my colleague, Ukraine is a small part of what's ongoing. I do believe that there are some who want a sort of new Yalta situation. I don't think the Europeans are necessarily fond of that idea, but I also think that there are some people in the Trump camp, in the MAGA camp, who are very anti-China and really wouldn't want to see that. So there are, I would say, contradictions within each of the camps as to what comes next, but I think that if there were to be a new order, sort of divvied up in the next few months or so, I think it would be a really transformative event and something that would leave the Europeans out in the cold.

PressTV: 9:59
Well, let's talk about the Europeans a little bit more, Gilbert. Why this split in this way? Why do the Europeans continue to say that they support this war, that they will support Zelensky, that they will give money, they will send troops? Explain that, please.

Doctorow:
They're heavily invested personally in this. Over the last three years, they've made enormous commitments. And for most of them, it's very difficult to reverse course. For some, like Macron, that's not a problem. He's a chameleon. Every two, three days, he's come up with another initiative which more or less has been contradicting the initiative that preceded it. Either he's pro-Russian, he wants to go and make peace, or he wants to bring the French troops onto Ukraine to fight the Russians. So Macron won't have a problem reversing course.

10:50
But someone like Starmer, who's a little bit more dense and a little bit more consistent in his dense nature, is going to have a terrible time reversing course. So just the reality of top personalities in political life that have made enormous personal investments in a failing policy, it's hard for them to change course. I believe that most of these people will disappear. Kaja Kallas, who yesterday, after the fracas in the Oval Office, appeared before microphones to say that-- what you have quoted on screen-- that the EU will continue to step up its supply of materiel to assist the Ukrainians to continue the war. I don't believe she's going to last two or three weeks. This is putting Europe directly against US foreign policy that's clearly stated. Europe cannot do that. The risk is that Trump will not only walk away from Ukraine, which he has done. Today was the end of US support for Ukraine. There's nothing further to discuss about this minerals deal. It will never take place.

12:01
But the Europeans will risk losing the United States participation in NATO. If they continue to object and to frustrate the plans of Trump to make a peace in Ukraine, NATO is dead, dead. And that, for Europe, means Europe will be totally defenseless. And all the European leaders who will have made that possible will be gone, gone. They should be distributing their resumes right now.

PressTV: 12:33
Well, Christopher, your thoughts, I mean, would you say that this meeting between Trump and Zelensky in the White House was basically not just significant, but symbolic of a tectonic shift when we look at-- this can be a point in this transformation of this new world order, that the clarity of what was taking place, it was extremely significant. I mean, how do you see it in the whole realm of things and significant of that new world order, of that multipolar world?

Hilali:
I think it is a real axial moment. I think it is a transformative moment. And I agree with my colleague that, of course, I don't think that Zelensky is going to come back and sign this deal. And I think that Zelensky is emblematic of the old regime of Biden, the sort of neoliberal world order, the world order after 1991, where you had an alliance of neocons and neoliberals basically looking at, you know, US hegemony and unipolarity and sort of doing their will and sort of regime change, talking about human rights.

13:49
You even saw that last night. Zelensky went on Fox News, and one of the things he kept on talking about was about freedom, liberty, democracy, and human rights. The Trump administration isn't necessarily interested in that. Neither are many others interested in that kind of language. It's been utilized as a weapon and a tool over the past 30, 40 years against many countries. We remember Yugoslavia, even in sanctions regimes against Iran and many other countries.

14:12
So what we're seeing now is we're seeing, okay, forget about all that stuff. This is about power. This is about spheres of influence. This is about economy and how are we going to divvy up the world between these great powers. And Trump recognizes these great powers. It's not like Trump keeps on talking about US is the best out of all of them. Trump recognizes and is very much enchanted by the other powerful leaders because he sees them almost as equals, and they treat each other in that way.

14:38
So I think that that will help to shape this new global transformation. What ends up happening, I don't have a crystal ball, I couldn't tell you, but I do believe that there is a big impetus for business to proceed as normal, for business to expand, for there to be cooperation and for there to be less of these ongoing wars that so many in the Trump administration have been decrying for so many years. So I think we are in a transformational moment. Let's see if everyone can seize on this opportunity to create something new. It remains to be seen.

PressTV: 15:08
What do you see happening inside of the US, Gilbert? Because yes, we have Trump and his administration, and we have so many others in the perspective of continuing with the old ways. I mean, do you see this affecting majorly internal affairs, domestic affairs inside of the United States?

Doctorow:
We already saw this today by the appearance of Lindsey Graham in front of the microphone. Lindsey Graham has been the most vicious promoter of Ukraine and denigrator of Russia, seeking to destroy Russia through Ukraine. Today, after watching this fracas, this great rumpus in the Oval Office, Lindsey Graham came in front of the microphones and more or less said it's all over with Zelensky. Now that's a tremendous change.

16:09
Now let's keep in mind that Mr. Trump is primarily orchestrating things for his American audience, as you'd expect. He's an American politician, after all. And he prepared this show. He knew very well that when put in front of the cameras, Zelensky would show his ugly face and people would understand that this man is not someone you can make a peace with. That was broadcast perfectly on all American channels. And when Lindsey Graham backs away from Ukraine then you show how skillful a politician is Donald Trump.

PressTV: 16:51
Okay, well Christopher, where do you see this going? Do you think that we're going to be seeing the end of the Russia-Ukraine war very soon?

Hilali:
I think that there's a few options here. And actually, I lean more towards the option that the United States might end up telling Russia, we no longer will support Ukraine. The Europeans will continue to support Ukraine as long as they can. And of course, we know they have depleted weapons, stockpiles, even Germany has made this clear, and they don't have the money and resources to do it.

I think that we're within two years of the end of the war. But I think that what might end up happening is the US will no longer support Ukraine, Ukraine will still fight on the battlefield with some minor European support, and then the Russian Federation will continue to make major advances on the battlefield, especially once the US supplies have dwindled and are no longer a real threat.

17:43
We might also see Russian domination in the skies, which has been something that has been a back and forth throughout this special military operation. We really, we'll see if the Russians are able to take control of the skies, I think this war is going to come to a very quick conclusion. However, the Europeans have made it very clear, especially some of the most important NATO countries, that they do not want to give up on Ukraine and that they see this as an existential fight, especially countries like the Baltic states, which are extremely Russophobic.

18:17
So I think that we're going to continue to see some of this conflict go on for some time. But I think that in the end, if the United States withdraws its support, which I think is very likely now, and given the fact that my colleague mentioned Lindsey Graham's change of heart, I think that is extremely significant. And when that happened yesterday, I think a lot of commentators, you know, were able to see the writing on the wall. I think that Kiev eventually is going to have to come to terms with territorial laws and a much smaller country that they now will have.

PressTV: 18:45
And on that note, I thank you both for being with me on this "Spotlight", Gilbert Doctorow, independent international affairs analyst out of Brussels; and Christopher Halali, researcher and political analyst out of Vershire. And thank you, everyone, for being with us for another"Sspotlight".

19:02
I'm Marzieh Hashemi. Hope to see you right here next time. Goodbye.