Transcript of interview on RT International, 8 April

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https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/doctorow-interview-2025:3

RT: 0:00
Well, as Humayun says, we can wait and see, but we can also get a lot of forecasts right now with Gilbert Doctorow joining us here on RT International, live to an independent international affairs analyst. Mr. Doctorow, a big fan of your work. I've been seeing you on all these different YouTube channels and news channels around the world for such a long time now. You really are very much on the front line of today's worldwide information wars.

It's so good, the information wars I should say, it's so good to get you here on RT International. So in advance, I thank you for your time. And I know you just heard the report between myself and Umamayyem Eshara as we're waiting to go live on air. Netanyahu, back in DC, not the first time he's gone there to an administration in the White House suggesting some kind of operation against Iran. But what's striking is he proposed a so-called Libya scenario for Iran.

We all know what happened to Libya, Mr. Doctorow. Could you give us your thought? What kind of lessons should Tehran take away from the rhetoric we're hearing right now?

Gilbert Doctorow, PhD: 1:00
Well, I think they've done a very good job of interpreting the foreign policy actions of Mr. Trump. They understood that he works by bullying. And they-- the supreme leader called that out, said that Iran would not submit to American bullying and that discussion of taking down its missile program or its support for the axis of resistance would not be subjects for discussion. They were non-negotiable. But they would talk precisely about their nuclear program, because they know very well that Mr. Trump has in his back pocket the reports of American intelligence community, which has said since 2007, year after year, that Iran-- most recently reconfirmed by the outgoing head of the CIA, Mr. Burns-- that Iran does not have an active nuclear weapon program. So under these conditions, it is conceivable that Mr. Trump will claim victory if essentially he succeeds in declaring the Iranians are doing what they otherwise had been doing, not building a nuclear weapon.

RT: 2:16
Yeah, yeah, I think you make a really good point there. In the meantime, you know, as you say, the US intel community is saying Iran for a number of years now has not been trying to develop a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu still calls Iran a nuclear threat, Mr. Doctorow. But isn't Israel itself in possession already of nuclear weapons as it is?

Doctorow: 2:34
Well, of course, it's the height of hypocrisy. It's a very poorly guarded secret that Israel is a nuclear power. I think that even the BBC this morning in remarking on the visit of Netanyahu to the Oval Office said that he was disappointed and slightly surprised by what Donald Trump had to tell him, namely that the United States is expecting this Saturday to have, well, direct talks with Iran in Oman. The Iranians deny that they would be direct, but that's a subtlety. The main point is that they're talking, and they are not about to bomb Iran. So there's been a lot of bluster, but that is nature, Mr. Trump.

RT:
Yeah, yeah. Meantime though, Mr. Doctorow, meantime, in the past week or two, we've seen the US move a whole bunch of Spirit stealth bombers to the Chagos Islands. These are big bunker buster bomb carrying aircraft.

The Chagos Islands not that far away from Iran. Meantime, we understand Tehran saying that their deep mountain missile silos are all activated on alert. I mean, some people saying we do seem to be on the cusp of a conflict. Mr. Doctorow, what is the possibility team Trump will walk away from the brink and allow diplomacy to play out?

Doctorow: 3:52
Well, those those weapons systems that are now in the Indian Ocean, with an easier striking distance of Iran, they otherwise would be in striking distance of Iran if they flew directly from the United States. So this is a matter of show and plumage by Mr. Trump and his group, which doesn't change the fact the United States can at any time unleash devastating bombing attacks on a country like Iran.

Nonetheless, it's also possible to consider, I think more likely the intention is to use these weapons systems against the Houthis. It's much easier to attack a small group that is not backed by major powers.

This is a distinction that we have to make when speaking about Iran, unlike Libya, which had the whole Western world against it. Iran has two major colleagues and close cooperation partners. They are Russia and China. That is a vast difference. The terms of the Russian Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement concluded with Iran signed in January does not contain within it provisions for mutual defense.

5:21
But nonetheless, close cooperation, the mutual drills, naval drills that they've had together with the Chinese as well, these are ongoing, and they cannot be ignored by Washington, particularly under the conditions of a very combative China. How China has responded to these, to the tariffs is indicative of how China will respond to any bullying that is implemented, not just juggled, by Washington with respect to Iran.

RT: 5:56
Yeah, that is a very intriguing comment there, Mr. Doctorow. What about your recent interview on Press TV? Gilbert, you said "The US may have plans to fight several wars at once, but I don't think they're ready to fight on three fronts." You did say "If the United States goes rogue and attacks Iran, then I think all bets are off." You said "We will see a response, definitely a military response from China and something significant from Russia." Can you expand on that, please?

Doctorow: 6:24
Well, let's concentrate on China, because they are not in another war as Russia is. Russia's attention is focused for good reason on its dealings with Ukraine, where they're very close to victory and they're not going to pull back, be distracted, and lose the concentration that they've enjoyed up till now. But China's a different case. China has already demonstrated a week ago by its exercises off the coast of Taiwan that it is prepared to introduce a complete blockade of Taiwan. They don't have to fire missiles. They can strangle Taiwan by imposing a no-fly zone over Taiwan and by interdiction of any naval vessels that are headed towards Taiwan.

7:21
And very quickly, that would bring Taiwan to its knees. And so, if the-- this is also a threat, a deterrent, this message that was made by the Chinese a week ago in these naval exercises. But unlike Russia, I think the Chinese are ready, if not just to take measures to forestall an American attack on Iran, but to take measures after such an attack takes place. As I say, they can bring Taiwan to its knees and end the question that has, the United States has made foremost in its relations with China: what happens to Taiwan?

RT: 8:02
Yeah, that's a good point there. Well, let's go from China and Taiwan back to China and Iran, if possible. Some people say, Mr. Doctorow, that the sanctions on Iran are also sanctions on China. China buys so much energy from Iran. It's heavily invested in the Iranian economy. Meantime, if something breaks out in that part of the world, talk to me about an oil crisis, the US dollar, the primary currency in oil trade, Iran being a massive oil producer, the whole region. Can you give me a brief overspective on that?

Doctorow: 8:33
Well, if I understand properly, about 75 percent of Iran's oil exports are going to one country, China. As regards China, it is importing 30 percent of its oil needs from Iran. So the cooperation there in hydrocarbons is very, very tight.

If the United States were to attack, Tehran has made it clear that they will close the Straits of Hormuz, and that will cut off the supply of Arab Gulf oil to the world. There will be an enormous crisis. There will be a devastating impact on the global economy. And that is a price to pay that I think Mr. Trump cannot consider now, when he's already in the middle of dealing with the consequences of his tsunami of tariffs.

RT: 9:29
Yeah, yeah, indeed. That's a great comment to wrap up our conversation here with Gilbert Doctorow, an independent international affairs analyst who's really doing a true service to the world with your commentary, I'm a big fan of your work, Gilbert. You are going on so many channels. You're pushing back on the narratives. You're telling the other sides of the stories. I love your work. I hope to see you again soon. Thank you very much for your time.

Doctorow:
Very kind of you. Very kind.

RT: 9:53
Thank you. Thank you. Bye-bye.