The speculation surrounding the “reported reappointment” of General Sergei Surovikin to a leading position in the war on Ukraine

A couple of days ago one reader left the following comment on my Substack platform: “It seems like Papa Bear continues to sleepwalk, BUT, General Sergey “Armageddon” Surovikin is Back & will lead Russia into ODESSA & KIEV.”

One day ago, the Deep Dive channel hosted Colonel Douglas Macgregor for an interview that was given the title: “Surovikin Is Back: Russia’s War in Ukraine Is About to Shift”

See:

The podcast description tells us: “Retired U.S. Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor joins Daniel Davis Deep Dive to argue that a single personnel decision in Moscow may matter more than months of diplomacy. Gen. Sergey Surovikin — the officer behind the Kherson withdrawal and the layered defensive belts that blunted Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive — is back in a prominent role, and Macgregor believes his doctrine of integrating air, missile and ground power signals a very different phase of the war.”

Indeed, Macgregor expects that under General Surovikin’s leadership Russia will now finally destroy the bridges across the Dnieper and the railways lines so as to totally disrupt deliveries of weapons from the West to the Ukrainian front lines. This would spell the end of the go slow strategy that Russia has been conducting for the past three years under the uninspired, shall we say incompetent direction of its chief military commander General Gerasimov.

We note that already in the past week Russia has made a dramatic U-turn with respect to the Ukrainian seaports, effectively destroying critical infrastructure in Odessa, Nikolaev and Izmail, and putting in place a blockade of the Ukrainain Black sea coast.

Regrettably, in the podcast Macgregor gives us no indication of his sources of information about Surovikin’s return to Moscow from his 2023 ‘exile’ to Africa where he has been directing Russian operations, most recently in Algeria.

The only other podcast which youtube Search today refers to with respect to Surovikin’s return is the Vietnam Women’s Newspaper channel.

This podcast tells us frankly that ‘for almost two years the name Sergei Surovikin has almost always been associated with speculation rather than official information.”

So it is today.

Where there is smoke, there may well be fire. That is to say, it may be safe to assume that President Putin has finally seen the dire direction the war is now taking and has decided to ‘change horses in midstream.’ Despite his braves words to the general public about Russia’s inexorable victory and ability to withstand the enemy blows, it clearly has become impossible for Putin to ignore the effective cut-off of Crimea from the Russian mainland, the ever more destructive drone and missile attacks on key energy and logistical infrastructure deep in the Russian heartland and daily reports of civilian deaths and injuries in one or another Russian oblast resulting from drone strikes that clearly have a terrorist intent.

In light of the foregoing refresher materials now being published on the history of generalship in Russia’s war on Ukraine, I correct my statements within the past week that Russia has not changed personnel at the top of its military since the war began in 2022. Indeed, Surovikin was removed in 2023 from a leading role in conducting that war and full power was given to Gerasimov. This occurred in the context of Surovikin’s suspected disloyalty with respect to the rebellion and march on Moscow by Wagner Group founder Yevgeni Prigozhin. By way of exculpation, I remind readers that in my most recent interview with Glenn Diesen I said it is now time for historians to re-evaluate the entire Prigozhin affair, which was accompanied by a clear denunciation of the general staff and of Minister of Defense Shoigu for corruption and incompetence.

It was widely known that General Surovikin and Yevgeni Prigozhin had knit close relations during the Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war during 2015-16, where the Group expanded and played a critical role. These relations carried over into the start of the Special Military Operation. Indeed, the Wagner Group was already deeply involved in the defense of the rebellious Donbas oblasts when the SMO was launched.

As further information about Surovikin’s return to leadership in the Russian war on Ukraine becomes available, I will be sure to post it here with commentary.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2026

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