Straws in the wind

This morning the Russian online news ticker dzen.ru featured two bits of information which the Community deserves to know. Western media to my knowledge have said nothing about the one which I consider more important: during his time in Geneva today for indirect negotiations with an Iranian delegation , Steve Witkoff will also meet with Rustem Umerov, whom I mentioned here yesterday with respect to the private side meeting he had with Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky last Wednesday after the formal team negotiators ended.

I believe that this Witkoff-Umerov meeting suggests a deal on both the terms of the peace treaty and on the replacement of Zelensky is close to finalization.

We may assume that within a Ukrainian negotiating team that is split over territorial concessions. Umerov is on the side of Kirill Budanov favoring immediate withdrawal from the Donbas in keeping with Russia’s precondition for a peace. Umerov would also be looked upon favorably by Washington to replace Zelensky. He is a civilian. He has had close ties to the USA going back to the year he spent in elementary school there and to his setting up and financing fellowships for fellow Ukrainians at Stanford. He is a Crimean Tatar by origin and a Muslim. As for the Russians, Medinsky has maintained contact with Umerov at each opportunity, usually private tete-a-tete meetings.

The second news item on dzen.ru points readers to an article in Politico discussing how Viktor Orban’s refusal to approve both the 20^th sanctions package and the 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine has the leadership of the European Union in a tizzy, scrambling for ways to satisfy his demand that the Druzhba pipeline be reopened. Good! This is a body blow to the smugness and feeling of invulnerability that have powered Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas to ever more brazen suppression of personal liberties of citizens and of scraps of sovereignty still held by the EU Member States.

©Gilbert DoctorowI believe that this Witkoff-Umerov meeting suggests a deal on both the terms of the peace treaty and on the replacement of Zelensky is close to finalization.

We may assume that within a Ukrainian negotiating team that is split over territorial concessions. Umerov is on the side of Kirill Budanov favoring immediate withdrawal from the Donbas in keeping with Russia’s precondition for a peace.Umerov would also be looked upon favorably by Washington to replace Zelensky. He is a civilian. He has had close ties to the USA going back to the year he spent in elementary school there and to his setting up and financing fellowships for Ukrainians at Stanford. He is a Crimean Tatar by origin and a Muslim. As for the Russians, Medinsky has maintained contact with Umerov at each opportunity over the past 4 years, usually private tete-a-tete meetings.

The second news item on dzen.ru points readers to an article in Politico discussing how Viktor Orban’s refusal to approve both the 20^th sanctions package and the 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine has the leadership of the European Union in a tizzy, scrambling for ways to satisfy his demand that the Druzhba pipeline be reopened. Good! This is a body blow to the smugness and feeling of invulnerability that have powered Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas to ever more brazen suppression of personal liberties of citizens and of scraps of sovereignty still held by the EU Member States.

©Gilbert Doctorow