Putin's muffled barking

Yesterday evening’s News program on Russian state television Channel Rossiya 1 was interrupted by a breaking news announcement from the Ministry of Defense informing us that the Commander-in-Chief had just unilaterally declared a two-day cease-fire in the war on Ukraine, 8 and 9 May, to mark Victory in Europe Day. Why the 8^th and the 9^th? Because Russia celebrates Victory Day in keeping with the actual calendar day in Moscow when the victory was declared, whereas Ukraine not long ago shifted the day of celebration to align with Western Europe, where the time difference with Moscow meant the peace was announced a day earlier local time.

The Ministry of Defense said that the Ukrainians had not yet agreed to this cease-fire but were expected to do so.

However, the reason why this MOD announcement was breaking news lay in its continuation. We were told that President Putin also responded to the latest statements coming from Vladimir Zelensky during his stay at a European gathering in Yerevan, Armenia the same day. Zelensky said that his armed forces intend to attack the Victory Day parade in Moscow on the 9^th with drones. The Ukrainians’ ability to get through Moscow’s very sophisticated air defenses was demonstrated a day earlier when one of their drones hit a residential building on Mosfilmovskaya, a thoroughfare just next to the Moscow River in the very center of the Russian capital.

Putin’s response was to warn Kiev that if it does attack, the Russians will then massively bomb the center of Kiev and he warned foreign diplomats to evacuate the city now.

***

Some colleagues spoke a few days ago about Putin’s message to Donald Trump during their 90-minute phone conversation last week that an American land invasion of Iran would be ‘completely unacceptable’ and also that Russia “is firmly intending to provide all means of assistance ....to Iran.” However, the normal Russian person’s estimation of ‘completely unacceptable’ would be “ну и что?” meaning “So what!” There was nothing substantial in this hint at a threat. Moreover, “all means of assistance” from Russia would be applied to diplomacy, not to military assistance to Iran and so counts for nothing.

However, what Putin declared yesterday with respect to Ukraine is genuinely a threat, with very specific intended follow-through. At the same time, I label this threat as ‘muffled grumbling’ that does not correspond to present international conditions of ‘might makes right.’ Why does Putin have to wait for a Ukrainian attack on the parade which will almost certainly result in very substantial deaths of military on parade and perhaps of officials and foreign invited guests like Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia on the reviewing stand where President Putin himself will be seated? Shouldn’t Zelensky’s threat to attack have been sufficient for Russia to make its devastating missile strike on Kiev right now? If Putin were a man of action, a real Commander-in-Chief, that is what he would do.

*****

I use this opportunity to restate my observation that Russian media are now openly attacking Putin’s war of attrition and dragged-out war on Ukraine. And for this they apparently are paying a price. I have noted that Vladimir Solovyov’s widely watched talk show has been replaced several days in a row by old or new movies. I do not think there is anything accidental about his being removed from the airwaves for lightly disguised criticism of the Commander-in-Chief. Meanwhile, Russia’s other most serious talk show, The Great Game, on a different state television channel seems to be uninterrupted, though presenter Dimitri Simes is also allowing more and more critical words to be addressed to the way Russia is being governed and how the war is being prosecuted.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2026