‘Judging Freedom’: New Pressures on Putin
One of the advantages of Andrew Napolitano’s channel ‘Judging Freedom’ is that he invites panelists who may agree on the facts relating to some major international development but can offer quite divergent interpretations of the statesmen making that news.
So it has been with respect to Donald Trump’s announcement yesterday that he is prepared to punish Vladimir Putin for disappointing his expectation that a peace with Ukraine would be concluded two months ago.
In his interview with the Judge, Scott Ritter said that the measures that Trump had announced are doomed to fail – both imposition of 100% secondary tariffs against Russia and those countries trading with Russia and renewed, expanded arms shipments to Ukraine via NATO’s European Member States. The Patriot anti-missile system will not be able to cope with Russia’s massive ongoing air strikes across Ukraine. This factual part of Ritter’s assessment is accepted by a great many analysts in independent media, myself included. But then there was Ritter’s explanation of why these ineffectual punishments were announced by Trump: because the President, the key members of his administration and the whole of Congress are just “idiots.’
Another panelist on ‘Judging Freedom’ yesterday, Colonel Douglas Macgregor, described Trump’s announced plans as the least bad measures he could introduce in response to demands from his critics inside Congress and in the broader political establishment for action to turn back the Russian offensive and buy time for the Kiev regime.
I am aligned with Macgregor in looking for logic in Trump’s actions, though I go several steps further than Macgregor has done. To be specific, I stress the timeline for imposition of the 100% secondary tariffs. Fifty days! That just happens to cover what remains of summer 2025 while a major Russian offensive is underway. And, like so many of Trump’s deadlines we may assume that it will be extended if necessary.
In the meantime, Trump has bought off the most dangerous critic within his own party, Senator Lindsey Graham, who is obliged to say that his pressure for sanctions on Russia has paid off even if he may be disgruntled that it is not going into effect tomorrow. Moreover, critics of Trump within Europe also are left speechless, now that officially Washington is resuming arms shipments to Ukraine and is cooperating on their plans to supply advanced weapons systems to Kiev including the Patriot from their own arsenals while scheduling replacements produced for them in the USA against payment.
My read-out is that in effect Trump is saying to Vladimir Putin: ‘just get on with it. Finish up this war in the coming 50 days and we will be friends!” This is, I suggest, a repetition of what Trump told Netanyahu about his Gaza war on Hamas: “Do what you like but be fast about it!”
If Vladimir Putin can summon the decisiveness that so far he has not shown in this war, and proceed to bomb the hell out of Ukraine, up to and including a decapitation strike on the Zelensky neo-Nazi gang in Kiev using those wonderful Oreshnik hypersonic missiles that Russia boasts, then the European continent will enjoy peace once again and the hysteria over rearmament led by Germany can be reined in.
It bears mention that the moneyed classes in Moscow were very satisfied with Trump’s ‘surprise’ message. The BBC yesterday reported that the Moscow stock exchange rose 4% on the news.
Since Macgregor reports from information provided to him by friends in Washington that the latest behind closed doors talks between U.S. and Russian officials remain cordial, we may assume that Trump remains on track to pursue détente with Russia and hopes that the Kremlin will do what has to be done expeditiously and effectively. These carrots may just have more sway with Vladimir Putin than the sticks that Trump identified publicly yesterday.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025
Your assessment, Dr. D., is undoubtedly correct that President Trump's real message to Moscow is -- Get on with it! The challenge from the Russian side is that what they really want -- normal peaceful relations with the West -- cannot be won on the battlefield. Russia could attack more quickly over the summer to take much more territory in the Ukraine (albeit at the cost of much higher casualties), but that would not bring the stable peace they seek. Indeed, given the utter foolishness of the Euros, faster Russian moves on the battlefield may make long-term peace even more unlikely.
It seems the "least bad" outcome for Russia would be political collapse of the Zelensky regime this summer followed by a UN-authorized mandate to a third party (China?) to occupy Rump Ukraine while long-term political settlements, boundary changes, and redevelopment take place. But the Euros can squash any UN mandate.
Ritter is too emotional to be a good analyst, he frequently flies off the handle. I was watching a Danny Haiphong livestream recently and he had a meltdown over a mildly critcal question from one of the viewers. You'd think someone who's ex military would be more calm & rational but he's too much of a hothead.