Judging Freedom’ edition of 29 April 2026: Is Putin on the ropes?

I owe Judge Andrew Napolitano a double debt of appreciation today for closing our interview with some words on the newly published War Diaries, Volume 2, 2024 and for discussing with me earlier the ‘unthinkable’ in Russian affairs, the possible political defeat of Vladimir Putin’s governing party, United Russia, in the September elections to the lower house of the legislature, the State Duma.

As I mention in this chat, latest poll figures put United Russia at just 20% of the electorate, which is a one-third drop from its usual position of 30%, from which in the past it used electoral district manipulations to capture more than 50% of the seats in parliament. The tricks entailed establishing two different electoral systems used in the districts across Russia. Many districts assigned winners on the basis of party lists, which is a system widely used in Europe. In this you do not vote for a person but for a political party whose policies you know well. Then that party has its own list, top to bottom, of whom it will award political jobs for which the election is held depending on the internal ranking of their candidates. The other system which United Russia introduced in some districts was the candidate system that we know very well in the USA: you vote for a given candidate. This system was assigned to specific districts where United Russia had a popular official in power for some time, someone who could easily beat the unknown candidates from Opposition parties. What I am describing is not my discovery. It was set out very clearly by the leader of the ultranationalist LDPR party, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, towards the end of his life when he had nothing to lose and could stop playing the clown, which had for decades been his way of remaining in politics and not being pushed out by the Putin boys.

If United Russia is indeed scoring 20% electoral support, then it will be neck and neck with the second largest party in Russia, the Communist Party, led by Gennady Zyuganov. And last week, on the anniversary of the birth date of Lenin, delivered a speech in the Duma in which he warned that if the economic and financial policies of the government do not change fundamentally, then there may be in the autumn a new Russian Revolution as in 1917. What he had in mind was the February Revolution, which was in effect a palace coup, that forced Tsar Nicholas II to abdicate. As we know, that put Russia on a slippery path which ended in the Communist Revolution of October 1917.

For all of these reasons, I say that the elections in September are as important for Putin’s continued hold on power as the November midterm elections are for Donald Trump.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2026