‘Judging Freedom,’ 29 May edition: How Precarious Is Ukraine?

Today’s chat examines the very provocative plans of German Chancellor Merz to supply the Taurus missile to Ukraine. I believe he may not properly appreciate the way the Russians distinguish between American, French, British missiles and those the Germans are providing. As I say here, President Putin will have no choice but to respond with missiles destroying German military assets because a large and vocal part of the Russian population will not allow him to sit on his hands.

Do heads of state determine the will of the people or are they implementers of the will of the people? The question was posed by Lev Tolstoy as the central issue of War and Peace. Here and now my call is that Putin must implement the will of the people and not his own predispositions. Hence. If the Germans do go through with deliveries of Taurus to Kiev, Putin will attack Germany with Oreshnik hypersonic missiles, likely after making his case before the UN Security Council. There is no reason for him to conceal his intentions. There is no need to be surreptitious: the Oreshniks are unstoppable.

Donald Trump is in a similar situation. His predisposition is to oversee a peace negotiation that ends in a treaty closely approximating Russian demands. However, the political forces in Europe and on Capitol Hill work against that. In this chat we discuss the bill that Lindsey Graham has introduced in the Senate calling for imposition of very harsh new economic sanctions on Russia with reference to Russia’s latest drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. Graham says the bill is approved by 80 Senators, making it veto-proof.

I believe Graham’s bill will precipitate the long-awaited declaration by Trump that the USA is leaving the peace process and ending its involvement in the Ukraine war. In that case, Trump can claim to be even-handed. He will accept the inevitable with respect to new sanctions, saying the intention is to moderate Russian demands to conclude a peace. And he will simultaneously end U.S. military, financial and intelligence aid to Ukraine to moderate Ukrainian demands. The net effect will indeed be to end the war on the terms of the victor, Russia, sooner rather than later.

Otherwise, in this interview Judge Napolitano posted a video of Merz claiming that Russia has been attacking civilian targets in Ukraine – apartment buildings, hospitals, kindergartens. These are outrageous lies coming from Kiev and disseminated irresponsibly by Merz. In this regard, he is now rivaling British Prime Minister Starmer in the Pinocchio rankings.

I was particularly pleased to deal with the question of the drone attack on President Putin’s helicopter when he toured the Kursk oblast at the start of the week. Some analysts have said that this indicated that US or British intelligence sharing with Kiev had enabled this assassination attempt. There is even the suggestion that Trump may have had foreknowledge of the attack. However, there are, as I say here, other possible explanations, including the Ukraine’s own surveillance with drones given that the Russian President was flying just across the border from Ukrainian positions. Or, more likely their intelligence could have been provided by Russian traitors based in Kursk.

In the past several days the Russian authorities have made arrests of Kursk officials for expropriating defense funds that were allocated to the oblast early in the Special Military Operation. This theft, it is said, made possible the successful Ukrainian incursion in August 2024. Russian news reports yesterday emphasized the rampant corruption in Kursk. It is not inconceivable that in such an environment there have been willing collaborators in Kursk selling intelligence to the Ukrainians.

Finally, I am grateful to Judge Napolitano for featuring my just published War Diaries. The Russia-Ukraine War, 2022-2023 and inviting my comments on why the book should interest readers.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025