Judging Freedom, 11 July 2024: “Putin’s Next Moves”
In today’s edition of Judging Freedom with Judge Andrew Napolitano, we had a far-reaching discussion of the contradictory signals in and around the ongoing NATO summit in Washington.
On the one hand, a couple of days ago the alternative media were reporting President Zelensky’s latest statements suggesting that the end of the war is nigh based on a negotiated settlement in line with Russian demands. He was said to be ready to invite Russia to the next Peace Conference he is promoting. He was said to accept the need to recognize Russian rule over the territories they captured in the war.
On the other hand, in the proceedings in Washington Joe Biden and his Secretary of State Tony Blinken have spoken publicly in the most belligerent manner about delivery of F16s and of a variety of air defense systems for the sake of Ukraine’s continuing the fight and preventing Putin’s march on Europe which, they say, would follow should Ukraine lose the war.
Meanwhile, there is confusion over the intention of the United States to send ground-to-ground versions of the nuclear capable medium range (1800 km) Tomahawk missiles to Europe. Is the timetable for such deliveries 2026 or is it in the immediate weeks ahead? Are they to be shipped only to Germany or are they going to Ukraine, as Russian talk shows last night discussed? If the latter is the case, then they could reach to Moscow and well beyond, posing the kind of threat that Mr. Putin has said would prompt a preemptive nuclear attack from Russia.
Finally, we discussed the latest news posted on the Zero Hedge portal a day ago that China’s People’s Liberation Army is presently conducting 11 days of military exercises near Brest in Belarus, close to both the Ukrainian and the Polish borders. If true, this would be a very quick implementation of the mutual security provisions of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which Belarus formally joined at the SCO Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan two weeks ago. It would also give Poland, in particular, and NATO more generally good reason to reflect on the wisdom of NATO’s becoming a global alliance by building a presence in East Asia, which is the subject of today’s deliberations of the Alliance members in Washington, D.C.
Full transcript below submitted by a reader, followed by the link to the interview.
Judge Andrew Napolitano: 0:32
Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for "Judging Freedom". Today is Thursday, July 11th, 2024. Professor Gilbert Doctorow joins us now. Professor Doctorow, a pleasure, of course, my friend. Thank you for all the time that you spend with us. As we speak-- maybe it's a little early in Washington, D.C., but certainly yesterday and probably later on today-- we have heard a lot of saber rattling from NATO. I'm going to play you one or two of the more extreme rattlers, and that happens to be the President of the United States. So here is President Biden on Tuesday saying that, did you know there are 100,000 U.S. troops in Europe and they're ready to go? Cut number six.
President Joe Biden: 1:29
Even before Russian bombs were falling in Ukraine, the alliance acted. I ordered the U.S. reinforcements at NATO's eastern flank, more troops, more aircraft, more capabilities. And now the United States has more than 100,000 troops on the continent of Europe.
Napolitano: 1:50
For what purpose do you think the United States have 100,000 troops on the continent of Europe, given what's happening in Ukraine? Is this a tripwire?
Gilbert Doctorow, PhD:
I think it's to intimidate the Russians. And the Russians are looking at these numbers with increased frequency on their television broadcasts, exactly going over what they see in American academic papers and government releases regarding NATO's full capabilities in number of tanks and number of servicemen and so forth. So this particular American number will be followed very closely by them. What-- is it a tripwire? Well, it's a rather big tripwire, you can stumble on that all right. How prepared these people are, these servicemen are to engage in combat, that is an interesting subject to investigate, but I don't have any data in front of me.
Napolitano: 2:56
Surely, the Russians know exactly where these troops are, Poland, Romania, Germany, I don't know where else they would be, but I would imagine the Russians know exactly where they are. And the Russians know exactly what offensive weaponry is available to them.
Doctorow: 3:15
Yes, that's probably true. The real issue-- and this is something that's debated within Russia, it's been discussed in the States on programs like your own-- that is, the readiness of the Russians to respond in a forceful way to these mounting pressures and threats from the United States and others. And this is a critical issue. Is Mr. Putin the right man? Is the horses for courses at this particular moment of existential threat? Is his diplomatic, civilized, religiously motivated conduct of Russian military and foreign policy appropriate to the threat? That's an open question.
Napolitano: 4:17
Is he under pressure from those on the right of him, and I don't even know if "right and left" means what it used to mean when you and I first began studying this, but you know what I'm talking about, from hardliners, from hawks, to [be] more aggressive? You heard what Dmitry Medvedev said yesterday. I think Medvedev is sometimes the bad guy to Putin's good guy. I don't know. What is your analysis?
Doctorow:
There's more than one bad guy to Putin's good guy. And to put in proper context your remarks about what is right and what is left, certainly among the most forthright spokespeople for a hard line on the West is the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. You want to call them the right or the left, that's optional. But the point is: there are nationalists who are very dissatisfied with Mr. Putin's conduct and who are genuinely fearful that it is being misread and can lead to tragedy, misread in the West that is, as weakness and indecisiveness and inability to act in a proactive way to prevent escalation.
5:31
We hear-- on American television, we hear from the State Department that the Russians are escalating, but what you have just described in all of the presentations at the NATO summit here in Washington, indicates that the real escalation is coming out of Washington. The discussion of the F-16s, it sounds like this summer. We are in the summer. So it means that Holland and Denmark have already dispatched F-16s somewhere. It also is clear that there are not enough Ukrainian- trained pilots to fly those planes, which means they will be NATO pilots wearing Ukrainian uniforms. So we are headed into a very dangerous conflict between Russia and NATO.
Napolitano: 6:26
Would any of those NATO pilots wearing Ukrainian uniforms be Americans?
Doctorow:
It's reasonable to assume so, but not necessarily.
Napolitano:
American Air Force officers trained to fly and use F-16s-- and that training is very expensive and it takes at least a year beyond their regular training-- would don the uniform of a foreign country?
Doctorow:
Well, I am not prepared to confirm that. Who exactly will be in those cockpits, we don't know. But that they will be reporting to NATO in one way or another, and if they are not Ukrainians, that is a high probability. However, the F-16 issue is not the only very troublesome point to have come out of the discussions going on in Washington. I understand that either yesterday or today, there will be discussion of America's dispatch of Tomahawk medium-range cruise missiles. Now, these missiles have an 1800- kilometer range. That is on the-- I can tell you that Russian television, the Solovyov program that's widely watched, that's a panel show, a talk show, last night was suggesting that the United States is shipping these Tomahawks to Ukraine.
7:56
They put up on the screen maps showing the range of Tomahawks, assuming they were launched from Ukraine and going well past Moscow. That's to say, the whole of European Russia would be subject to attack and potentially to nuclear attack in these missiles. I don't know how correct the information that reached Solovyov was. I have my doubts about it. The United States-- the reports that I've seen coming out of Western news suggest that the delivery of Tomahawks is scheduled for 2026, not for the immediate days. And one of the factors is the adaptation of the Tomahawks to land-based use since they are, normally they are ship-based.
8:44
It is also an issue that's closely related to another topic that has been in the Russian news for several years now. And that is the convertibility of the supposedly defensive anti-ballistic missile bases that the United States has built in Poland and Romania, that they are convertible to use by exactly by Tomahawks. So these questions are interrelated, but they are very, very troubling. And I can tell you, I put it on the table as an unresolved issue. Was Mr. Solovyov well informed last night? Is this really something to worry about? Because it's just a hair's breadth away from World War III.
Napolitano: 9:25
Refresh my memory, please, on who Solovyov is.
Doctorow:
Solovyov? He is the dean of Russian journalists, at least of the Moscow Journalist Society. I'm not sure if it's a national society. He is in the very close circle at the top of news presenters at Russian state television, very close to the head of news, Mr. Kiselyov. and he has interviewed Putin. He's close to the Kremlin inside.
Napolitano: 10:04
So he's a credible source.
Doctorow:
He's a credible source, and he has been a promoter of strong nationalist positions within Russia, going back more than a decade. He frequently invited Mr. Zhirinovsky onto his program. He shared many of Zhirinovsky's positions in their anti-Western nature. And so, his position on this -- are they pushing Mr. Putin from the right? -- he is one of those people who is pushing from the right.
Napolitano: 10:44
Here's President Biden also on Tuesday, not mentioning Tomahawks, not mentioning F-16s, but saying, probably to the dismay of Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel, Ukraine goes to the head of the line. Cut number eight.
Biden:
In the coming months, the United States and our partners intend to provide Ukraine with dozens of additional tactical air defense systems. The United States will make sure that when we export critical air defense interceptors, Ukraine goes to the front of the line. So [they'll] get this assistance before anyone else gets it.
Napolitano: 11:24
This was at the opening session of NATO's 75th birthday celebration, which, as you mentioned a few minutes ago, is going on in Washington, D.C., even as we speak. How do you assess the Kremlin's assessment of the saber-rattling going on in Washington? And we'll play, before you even answer that, we'll play an example of one of them. He doesn't use the word "irreversible" or "inevitable", but those two words are in draft documents that have been leaked to the press, referring to Ukraine joining NATO, but he does say that it will happen. Here's the Secretary of State of the United States, whom we haven't heard in two weeks, but here he is yesterday at the summit in NATO. Cut number 18.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken: 12:22
We have an incredibly robust package that will be unveiled over the next couple of days at NATO that builds a very clear, strong, robust, well-lit bridge to NATO membership for Ukraine, including, as you mentioned, the first time NATO's dedicated a command to helping an aspiring country join the alliance. This in and of itself is extraordinary.
Napolitano: 12:44
He didn't actually use the word "irreversible", but as I indicated, it appears in one of those drafts that his people leaked. How does the Kremlin react to all that?
Doctorow:
Well, not being a Kremlin insider, I have a hard time answering it in their name. The best that I do is I deal with very responsible people who are from Kremlin inside, and Mr. Solovyov is one of them. Vyacheslav Nikonov, the grandson of Molotov, who has a program of his own, "The Great Game", together with Dmitri Simes, formerly head of the Nixon Center and now well established in Moscow.
These people are the ones whom I listen to. And still in all, let's be open about it, the signals that Moscow is receiving must be as confusing to them as they are to us. My good friend Ray McGovern was saying, just a few days ago, how things are looking better, because we have received news that Zelensky is ready to have the Russians present at the next round of his peace summit. We've heard that he is ready to accept the inevitability that Ukraine will have to acknowledge the loss of territories that Russia has already captured.
14:17
All of this sounds like Mr. Zelensky was listening to realist, sane advice among his advisors, to make peace with Russia. Now, it may well be that this stepping up, this very energetic speech-making by the administration in Washington is to overturn a decision that Zelensky has made in the realization that the game is up and he's losing too many of his people. That could be an explanation. But certainly, the signals between what Zelensky has said to have acknowledged as reality a few days ago and what we see now in Washington, that is they are in sharp contradiction. Which is the real way that things are going, it's very hard to say. And if we have a hard time, I think the Kremlin also has a hard time.
Napolitano: 1513
I'd like your thoughts on what you think the Kremlin's reaction will be to this kind of a message also from President Biden on Tuesday. Cut number seven.
President Biden: 15:30
In Europe, Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine continues. And Putin wants nothing less, nothing less than Ukraine's total subjugation, to end Ukraine's democracy, destroy Ukraine's culture and to wipe Ukraine off the map. And we know Putin won't stop at Ukraine. But make no mistake: Ukraine can and will stop Putin.
Napolitano: 16:02
How bitterly ironic and harshly inappropriate is his language that suggests that Putin, President Putin, wants to destroy democracy in Ukraine, when Joe Biden and his buddies in 2014 did exactly that.
Doctorow: 16:20
I completely agree with you, and they've been on that same path ever since. If there's any shred of democracy left in Ukraine, it's only dumb luck; because the United States has done its best to serve those elements in and around the presidency, mainly neo-Nazi elements that have been controlling the presidency ever since 2014 and leading it as far away from democracy and all freedoms. There's no freedom of the press, there's no freedom of politics in Ukraine. To speak about today's Ukraine as a democracy is an insult to anybody's intelligence.
Napolitano: 17:06
Is there any evidence of which you're aware, of Putin's desire to attack Europe or to reassemble the old Soviet Union? Or is Joe Biden's mentality-- now I know you're a doctor, but you're not a shrink-- stuck in the Cold-War era?
Doctorow: 17:29
Well, he never left the Cold-War era, and this was patently clear from articles in the "Foreign Affairs" magazine that were issued early in his 2020 campaign. These were all based on premises of a Cold War. So, he didn't move very far from where he'd been during his whole political life. It's just that he lost touch with and had no interest in objective reality. These are wonderful political speeches to make to rally the troops, but they have little to do with objective reality. So, he hasn't changed. The circumstances of Mr. Putin -- you have to look at what Russians have been saying about the Soviet past, among themselves, without any attempt to influence thinking outside the country.
18:35
Mr. Zhirinovsky was one of the biggest realists and the one who said on Russian state television repeatedly, that the Soviet Empire had been parasitical, and had drained the Russian core of assets. Since the allegiance of these allies was being bought at every turn.
The Russian foreign policy that Russian nationalists have been trying-- these are the people you assume would be the ones pressing for empire-- they're exactly the opposite. They don't want an empire, because they know Russia can't afford it. They would like to look after their own people, and not look after subservient people who are subservient only because they're being bought off at Russia's expense.
Napolitano: 19:29
One last question about NATO before we move on to another subject. President Zelensky is apparently fearful, I guess he thinks he'll still be in office, that Donald Trump may be elected president and may try to remove the United States from NATO. I was quite surprised to hear him say this, but here he is in Washington on Tuesday, cut number 16.
Zelensky: 20:00
I hope that the United States will never seriously think to go out from NATO. I think so. But it's not my decision, I'm just sharing with you my thoughts. And I hope that if people of America will vote for President Trump I hope that his policy with Ukraine will not change.
Napolitano:
Very interesting, I thought, that he said that. And of course, as we speak, literally, at their breakfast meeting this morning, the NATO leaders are trying to-- have you heard this phrase before?-- Trump-proof NATO. What they can do, something that will commit the United States and NATO to something in a way that couldn't be undone if Donald Trump becomes president. But Professor, it must be of concern to them, the potential that Trump would re-enter the picture and his attitude about NATO is hardly that of Joe Biden.
Doctorow: 21:15
I don't think that Mr. Trump would try to dismantle NATO. That would embroil him in enormous fights on Capitol Hill that would deplete his political capital without any notable gain in his position with respect to the war in Ukraine and American foreign policy generally.
All he has to do is not support. That is, not provide additional funds, not go begging Congress to raise monies for Ukraine and to ship military hardware from our stock or to back orders, to place orders with American arms manufacturers for shipment to Ukraine. He would-- by doing nothing, he would be doing everything. And that they cannot proof, proof, proof, Trump proof.
Napolitano 22:12
And that number, the last count of what, Joe Biden's administration with congressional, overwhelming congressional support has sent to Ukraine thus far, 175 billion dollars worth. It's extraordinary. And what kind of shape is the Ukraine military in? On its last legs, don't you agree?
Doctorow: 22:38
Not entirely. It's a big country, even though it's been reduced from 40 million population to maybe 25 million population. But when you look at the day-to-day fighting, even if, as some of my peers have said correctly, the daily kill ratio or maiming ratio of the Ukrainian forces suggests 2,000 men are taken out of action a day. Still there are bodies to fill those slots.
The Russians, when you look at what is happening-- you have to remember this war has changed all of our thinking. This war has introduced technologies and tactics on the ground that influence greatly how you measure the strength of one side or the other. I have in mind particularly the drones. The Russian forces, artillery, and these glider bombs, they are wonderful against massed troops. Those of my colleagues who remark that there is no room for training Ukrainian recruits because you can't find barracks for them, you can't find fields for them to practice in without their being bombed by the Russians. That's fine and I'm sure it's true.
24:06
But it's ignoring the fact that just a few people who are well trained in the use of drones are creating havoc in the battlefield and also that influences Russia. Russia is also subject to Ukrainian drone attack, everywhere in the battlefield. So, the situation is more complicated than it looks. It's not just numbers of men.
Napolitano:
Surely, Professor, you don't agree with Joe Biden when he said, "Make no mistake, Ukraine can and will stop Putin."
Doctorow:
Oh, it's not going to stop Putin. That is clear. The Russians are determined. The Russians have vast numbers of volunteers. Go back in history a little bit. This is not the first war that Russia's been engaged in. They have been in enormous engagements of a military nature for several hundred years. I have compared Mr. Putin to Peter the Great, also about 24, 25 years in power. Also in the Great Northern War, he waged battles enormously costly in every way that placed Russia among the foremost European powers.
25:25
Mr. Putin is doing something similar. But the nature of warfare, as I say, has changed. And vast numbers of men are no longer a decisive factor when you have these technical devices. Now, can you stop the Russians? No, you can't. And they are advancing in 1, 2, 3 kilometers a day, almost all across the front, but not 5 kilometers and not 10 kilometers. And they're doing it slow, precisely to avoid catastrophic losses that can accompany the offensive side, as opposed to the defensive side.
Napolitano: 26:08
Switching gears: as we speak, Professor Doctorow, are there Chinese troops in Belarus engaged in war games?
Doctorow:
This has been reported in the alternate media, and it may well be true. But let's put this in a context. It would be entirely logical, considering what happened in Astana two weeks ago. Remember that Belarus became-- Astana was the host, Astana is the capital of Kazakhstan, it was the host to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit at which Belarus was made the 10th member. Now this is an extraordinary change in the composition of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which going back to its founding around 2001, was to shore up security in Central Asia that was under threat from the extremist Islamists in Afghanistan.
27:20
And that shoring up was done by their neighbors, on one side China, the other side Russia, and also as a means of steadying the ambitions of both those two big powers for control of this territory between them. From that, it has moved on, expanded. It has India, has Pakistan, it has Iran in it. And now they added Belarus. So the Chinese would be going to Belarus, has to be put in that context: that they are going to a country that is now a member of the security arrangements that are enshrined in the founding documents of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
It, of course, is remarkable for sending a message to Europe-- and of course to the immediate neighbors, Poland and Ukraine-- that if you think that you are going to overrun the Belarus borders-- and this is entirely thinkable, since the Poles have have drawn a lot of troops close to the Ukrainian border, and they are supporting the failed alternative to Lukashenko as head of state in Belarus.
28:37
So they would try to carry this pretender across the border, that they would try to stage attacks, which the Russians would call terrorist attacks, across the border as the Ukrainians have done in the Belgorod province near Kharkov -- this is entirely thinkable. The presence of these Chinese troops suggests, "Gentlemen, you don't have to wait for the North Koreans to come. We're here."
Napolitano:
Well, you never fail to give us a thought-provoking analysis, Professor Doctorow. Very, very much appreciated. I'm going to be away for two weeks, but I hope you can come back and resume your regular weekly time with us at the end of July. Thank you so much, my dear friend.
Doctorow:
It's a great pleasure.
Napolitano:
Thank you. Just to go over who's coming up the rest of today, which is a very interesting day for all of us. At 3 o'clock this afternoon, Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson. At four o'clock this afternoon, Professor John Mearsheimer. And at the end of the day at five o'clock, the always worth waiting for, Max Blumenthal,
29:53
Judge Napolitano for "Judging Freedom".
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