Our analytic framework has to fit the facts, and when those facts seem to change day by day then this must be acknowledged. The intent of this essay is to do precisely that.
Last night I informed the Community on the most interesting segment of the News of the Week program on Rossiya 1: that the Russian armed forces are now attacking the border crossings between Ukraine and its NATO neighbors Poland, Slovakia and Romania so as to interrupt shipments of war materiel by land, complementing the interdiction by sea through attacks on the Black Sea and Danube ports.
However, Russia has not truly disrupted diplomatic tourism. Yesterday, Sunday, the leaders of Denmark, Finland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania met with Zelensky in Kiev together with representatives of their military industry to sign agreements for production of air and sea drones in Ukraine. It appears that Russian attacks yesterday were concentrated on Odessa, not on Kiev. Why?
As I reported earlier today, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is now in Kiev to hand over blueprints for production of the medium range British Storm Shadow missile to be produced in Ukraine. Why is Russia allowing this to happen?
If diplomatic tourism is continuing, then we must suppose that transborder shipments of war materiel are also getting through.
All of the foregoing leaves open the question of when, if ever, the Kremlin is going to go for the jugular and bomb to smithereens the Ukrainian defense ministry, military intelligence center, parliament, president’s offices? When, if ever, is Russia going to destroy factories in the U.K., Germany, Finland and so on that are now supplying to Ukraine the weapons and manufacturing knowhow being used to inflict great harm on Russian refining, manufacturing and logistics?
I listened a few minutes ago to the latest interview that Professor Glenn Diesen took with one of my colleagues who until now was loudly denouncing anyone, myself in first place, who called attention to the damage being done to Russia’s refineries. ‘Easily reparable, not a real setback’ he was saying, intimating that my reporting was exaggerated and serving the interests of Russia’s enemies. Well, lo and behold, his tale today is that ‘Putin and the other leaders understand that in war you have to take some punches.’ This same chap is now acknowledging that the mighty Russian blow to knock out Ukrainian ground forces is not going to happen, because drone warfare drastically limits troop concentrations for an offensive.
I am glad that this chap is coming around to recognize the Russian setbacks in the latest phase of the war to be real.
Now, it seems, we are all aligned in understanding that Russia’s advances in the ground war are only one dimension of the conflict. Where we differ is in our appreciation of the readiness of the Kremlin to go all the way, to take the inescapable risks of decapitation strikes on Ukraine, of attacking the Coalition of the Willing.
Sadly, the big European war that many of us in the Opposition to the Washington Narrative have been predicting for years is now looming right before our eyes. And such predictions were made by level headed and experienced people. I think in particular of the well-known Italian journalist and activist Giuletto Chiesa, who so eloquently issued a warning of this nature at an annual European-Russia Forum held in the European Parliament building a year before his death in 2020, that is to say well before the heightened Western belligerency following the launch of the Special Military Operation. At the time, it was the Left which was clear-eyed about the coming war. Today it is mostly the politicians on the ‘Far Right’ who see and call out the disaster towards which our government leaders are taking us. But that the old warnings have been validated is quite clear, whatever your politics.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2026

Russia Today notes that England's PM (the not-democratically-elected Punter from Manchester) confirmed that he will allow "European defense manufacturer MBDA to release classified information concerning UK-made components for SCALP". Of course, given the level of corruption in the Ukraine, that previously-classified information will be available to anyone with ready cash -- the Chinese, Indians, Pakistanis, Taiwanese of course, but also the Houthis and who knows how many other players.
Maybe the European people have decided they would rather be destroyed in a nuclear holocaust than suffer the indignity of being replaced by the ongoing overwhelming influx of "refugees".