Britain’s failed submarine launch of a nuclear missile set against its proxy war with Russia

In my latest interview on India’s premier English language global broadcaster, WION, we discussed the degradation of the British navy as revealed by the official announcement of a test submarine missile launch carried out off the Florida coast in January. The first stage of their Trident missile failed to ignite and it fell back into the sea just seconds after launch to the great embarrassment of the U.K. Minister of Defense and others in attendance. This flop came on top of other recent bad news for the British navy, including the withdrawal of one aircraft carrier from participation in the latest NATO war games due to a broken propeller shaft and the delayed departure of its replacement aircraft carrier due to unnamed mechanical problems.

Clearly the British navy is on the same downward path that has led to the loss of empire and the sharp reduction of British ground forces over the past several years.  

However, as I pointed out in this interview, these problems of underfunding and poor maintenance are not the only serious challenges the Navy is facing.  A new threat has just arisen in connection with the determination of the Houthis in Yemen to fight back against the U.S. and U.K. naval presence in the Red Sea and the recent air and missile attacks on Yemen of these two nations. From the early days of the Houthi actions, when their drones and missiles were intercepted by U.S. air defense installations on board their fleet in the Red Sea, we see that the Houthis have in the past week become far more effective: a Qatari oil tanker was set aflame, compelling the crew to abandon ship, and a British owned commercial vessel is said to have been sunk. Moreover we are told that the Houthis are now in possession of submarine and surface drones capable of sinking ships.  It is an open question where this new capability has come from.  In the interview I venture the guess that the Russians are helping, in the spirit that two sides can play at the game of proxy wars.

Transcript below by a reader

Interviewer: 0:00
All right, so let's start with the big story that we are tracking on WION at this hour. The British Navy is facing a big problem. Its ships can't seem to leave the dock, aircraft carriers are breaking down and there is an acute shortage of personnel. And now a British nuclear sub submarine missile launch has failed, as a Trident missile has misfired and has fallen into the sea.

0:24
Now this is extremely worrying, not only for the United Kingdom, but also a big concern for its allies such as the United States. Please remember this is a big chink the British armor at a time when Russia is continuing to pound Ukraine and the United Kingdom needs to guard the waters, as threats emerge ranging from the Houthis to potentially even the Chinese. Our next report tells you as to what actually ails the British Navy at the moment.

Reporter: 0:56
The Royal Navy, whose once-mighty fleet of ships ruled the oceans to help the British Empire extend its reach around the globe. Today it struggles with having become a pale shadow of its former self. In yet another embarrassment, Britain's Trident nuclear deterrent system misfired during a test last month. The Sun newspaper reported that the missile crashed into the Florida coast near the submarine that launched it.

1:29
The tritant test fiasco itself is just the tip of the iceberg. Royal Navy ships are breaking down mid-voyage. In 2020, aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales suffered a devastating flooding incident. Earlier this month, the $3.7 billion HMS Queen Elizabeth had to pull out of the largest NATO naval exercises since the cold war. The reason: a problem in the propeller, exposing vulnerabilities in one of the crown jewels of the fleet.

2:07
These equipment failures are compounded by a critical shortage of personnel. In 2022, the Navy admitted being 7,000 sailors short of its target strength, leading to over-restricted crews and strained operations, so much so that the Royal Navy had to decommission two warships for lack of staff. The desperate need to find talent even led to an unprecedent move in December 2023. A high-ranking Rear Admiral position was advertised on LinkedIn. Last month, in the Red Sea, Houthis attacked an oil tanker with links to the UK. The fire was successfully put out by the Indian Navy's INS Vishakapatnam.

2:50
Defense sources in the UK claimed that Royal Navy ships could not help, because they lacked surface-to-surface missiles. There are many such problems. So what led to this decline? Budget cuts, post-cold war complacency and an over-reliance on outdated technology have all played their part. A weakened Navy undermines Britain's global reach and influence, impacting trade, security and international partnerships.

3:19
Clearly, Britain's image as a proud maritime power, with the Navy as its cornerstone, lies tattered. Bureau report, WION, World Is One.

Interviewer: 3:33
All right, now to give us more perspective, we're being joined by Dr Gilbert Doctorow, who's in fact an international affairs expert and also an author and a historian. He's joining us live from Brussels. Now Dr Doctorow, thank you very much indeed for joining us on this broadcast. And this incident that has happened, where a Trident missile test, which is a nuclear-capable missile that was tried by the British Navy, which has failed. And it has happened for a second time in the last eight years. How concerning should this be to the British military establishment?

Doctorow: 4:07
Well definitely it should be concerning to them. But it's part of an overall problem that your previous speaker has set out very, very well. I subscribe to most everything that he was saying. Britain has lost its empire. You in India know that best of all. Britain has lost its ground-forces capability, which are sharply reduced. And as you were now describing, Britain is in the process of losing what remains of its naval capabilities.

4:38
But that has to be put in a context of the changing nature of warfare. Gunboat diplomacy today is not what gunboat diplomacy was in the Reagan years. You can't just take in an aircraft carrier fleet and rule a regional conflict. You can't. The availability of modern technologies, particularly these small, inexpensive attack missiles and drones, has changed the nature of warfare.

5:12
But I'd like to bring in one other fact which bears heavily on what you're describing, and that is the connection between what is going on in West Asia, precisely in the Red Sea, and what is going on in Ukraine. These two wars are directly linked, especially in the last week. The attack on a Qatari oil tanker, which forced the the crew to abandon ship, and this attack, an attack yesterday on a British vessel in the Red Sea, highlight an enhanced capability that the Houthis have, happen to have, which isn't coming from nowhere.

5:54
I would like to say just briefly, that's coming very possibly from from Russia. Two days ago, on the premier Russian talk show, which may be considered to be an unofficial voice of the Kremlin, the remark was made that two can play proxy war. The West is playing proxy war against Russia, and now Russia is about to play proxy war against Britain. Britain is the leading attack dog in the West's quiet war with Russia,

Interviewer: 6:26
All right, now--

Doctorow:
--and the British Navy is at risk.

Interviewer:
Dr Doctorow, you know, just to, you know, go back to this issue of the Trident missile test, which is a nuclear-capable missile that, you know, just did not even take off, because the missile apparently fell a few, a bit of a distance away from the submarine from where it was launched. Now this has got to be a core part of Britain's nuclear deterrence. The fact that this missile test failed twice -- what does it say about Britain's nuclear deterrence?

Doctorow: 6:56
Well, let us say that Britain has a nuclear deterrent. I wouldn't despair of its overall capabilities of launching a missile when it has to. Nonetheless--

Interviewer:
But it has failed twice in the last eight years on both occasions that it has tried to test this missile.

Doctorow: 7:13
Well, if Britain doesn't watch its step, it may watch a nuclear submarine simply disappear. The-- not because of a failure, technical failure on the British side, but because [of] the game it's playing now with Russia. The Russians have spoken six months ago or more about their ability to sink one of these wonderful submarines at any time of their choosing. But of course, that risks setting off World War III. Now we have a new angle to this game. It's called proxy war, and if the Russians use the Houthis, they may find another one of those nuclear-carrying submarines disappear, not for mechanical failure, but under attack.

Interviewer:
All right, all right, very interesting. Thank you very much indeed, Dr Doctorow, for joining us and getting us [your perspective there].

Doctorow:
My pleasure.

Announcer: 8:05
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